Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

The Impact of Landsat Satellite Monitoring on Conservation Biology

Landsat 7s recent malfunctioning will result in significant gaps in long-term satellite monitoring of Earth, affecting not only the research of the Earth science community but also conservation users of these data. To determine whether or how important Landsat monitoring is for conservation and natural resource management, we reviewed the Landsat programs history with special emphasis on the development of user groups. We also conducted a bibliographic search to determine the extent to which conservation research has been based on Landsat data. Conservation biologists were not an early user group of Landsat data because a) biologists lacked technical capacity – computers and software – to analyze these data; b) Landsats 1980s commercialization rendered images too costly for biologists budgets; and c) the broad-scale disciplines of conservation biology and landscape ecology did not develop until the mid-to-late 1980s. All these conditions had changed by the 1990s and Landsat imagery became an important tool for conservation biology. Satellite monitoring and Landsat continuity are mandated by the Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992. This legislation leaves open commercial options. However, past experiments with commercial operations were neither viable nor economical, and severely reduced the quality of monitoring, archiving and data access for academia and the public. Future satellite monitoring programs are essential for conservation and natural resource management, must provide continuity with Landsat, and should be government operated.     

A principle of natural self-organization

The Science of Nature - This paper is the first part of a trilogy, which comprises a detailed study of a special type of functional organization and demonstrates its relevance with respect to the...     

Fetal cholecystomegaly: A prenatal marker of aneuploidy

The fetal gall bladder can now be easily identified during the second and third trimesters using high-resolution ultrasonography. In this report we present eight fetuses with an enlarged gall bladder detected on prenatal ultrasonography at a mean gestational age of 24.6 weeks (range 19–31 weeks). Additional ultrasonographic findings were present in four cases: fetal anomalies and intrauterine growth retardation in three and polyhydramnios in one. Of those cases associated with fetal anomalies, one woman underwent amniocentesis at 21 weeks revealing trisomy 18. The other two declined prenatal karyotyping; neonatal karyotyping revealed trisomy 13 in one and trisomy 18 in the other. Although an enlarged fetal gall bladder can be a normal variant in the second and third trimesters, the prenatal detection of cholecystomegaly should prompt a search for associated anomalies and other markers of aneuploidy. If found, prenatal karyotyping should be considered.     

Prenatal diagnosis of herlitz junctional epidermolysis bullosa by amniocentesis

Herlitz junctional epidermolysis bullosa (HJEB) is a severe blistering disorder which usually results in death during infancy. We have previously shown that the anchoring filament protein laminin-5 (kalinin/nicein), which mediates keratinocyte attachment and dermal–epidermal cohesion, is abnormally expressed in individuals with HJEB. Laminin-5 was detected by Western blot analysis in amniotic fluid from 44 consecutive normal secondtrimester control pregnancies, but was undetectable in second-trimester amniotic fluid from four pregnancies with fetuses affected by HJEB. In one case of severe non-Herlitz JEB, laminin-5 was detected in both amniotic fluid and skin. In human amniotic fluid, the laminin-5 a3 subunit was processed to a major 165 kD species and a minor 145 kD species and the β2 subunit was partially processed to 105 kD. Although laminin-5 was covalently associated with laminin-6 (K-laminin) in amniotic membrane, no covalent interaction was detected in amniotic fluid. Laminin-5 from amniotic fluid strongly supported keratinocyte attachment. These results suggest that Western blot analysis of second-trimester amniotic fluid is useful in determining the prenatal diagnosis of HJEB and that laminin-5 may serve a physiologically important function in amniotic fluid.     

Leaf arrangement

The striking universality of the occurrence of Fibonacci numbers in phyllotaxis is analyzed. Geometric investigation shows that Fibonacci patterns are intimately related to the golden divergence angle along the genetic spiral. A simple argument is presented to make this angle plausible by considering inhibitory action in primary pattern formation. The various types of leaf arrangement are related to the spatial and temporal range of the inhibitory influences.